Risk Assessment in Disaster Magement.

RISK ASSESSMENT.

Disaster risk management  is the systematic process of using administrative decisions, organization, operational skills and capacities to implement policies, strategies and coping strategies of the society and communities to lessen the impacts of natural hazards and related environmental and technological disasters. This comprises all forms of activities, including structural and non-structural measures to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) adverse effects of hazards.The  foundation of disaster risk management  lies in the  ability to assess imminent disasters in communities, this essay is  therefore a discussion on disaster  risk assessment ,what it is, how it is done, how it impacts on  risk  reduction,  its merits and demerits to the overall  management of  disasters.

Risk refers to the probability of harmful impacts and consequences, or expected human

Injury, environmental damage, loss of life, property and livelihood, resulting from natural

hazards and vulnerable conditions (www.unesco.org/water - 2005). It can be calculated as the interaction between the probability of a hazard occurring and the vulnerability of a

community to the hazard, together with the capacity of the community to cope with and

recover from a disaster (UN/ISDR 2004a). Understanding the interaction of hazards, exposure and vulnerability is crucial to effective   disaster prevention. Risk assessment therefore is fundamental to development practitioners, communities, nations, regional groupings and the International community at large   who work on disaster  risk reduction  and  recovery. A comprehensive  risk assessment   not only evaluates the magnitude  and likelihood of potential losses but  also  provides  full understanding   of the   causes    and  impacts   of those  losses The  main objective of  risk assessment is to  provide  objective  and transparent  information  for making   decisions  on  counter measures    to  reduce   disaster.

The United  Nations(U.N) through  the International  strategy for  disaster reduction (ISDR)  in its publication “Living  with  risk”  came up  with  a framework  on  how  to carry  out  a disaster  risk assessment. Thus  a comprehensive  assessment   should  first and foremost  seek  to  understand  the current  situation, needs  and  gaps inorder to assess  what  already   exists, to  avoid  duplication  of  efforts  and to  build on the   existing information. This  is done through a systematic inventory  and  evaluation of existing risk assessment studies, available  data and  information and  current  institutional  frameworks  and  capabilities. After  that  the  risk  assessor  should  carry out    a hazard  assessment  inorder  to  identify  the  nature, location, intensity  and likelihood  of major   hazards prevailing  in  a community  or  society.

Exposure   assessment    then  follows , this  is  done  to identify  the population  and assets  at  risk  and  delineate  the  disaster prone  areas. This  is  followed  by  a  vulnerability   analysis  thus  the  assessor  seeks  to  establish the capacity(or  lack of  it)of  elements  at risk to withstand  the given  hazard  scenarios. A loss or impact  analysis  then  follows, this  is done  to  estimate  potential losses  of the  exposed  population, property, services, livelihoods  and  the   environment   and to ascertain the  impact  of  such  losses  to  society. Risk  profiling  then  follows  thus  at  this  stage  the  assessor is doing  evaluations  to identify  costs  and  propose  effective  disaster  risk  reduction  strategies in terms of the  socio-economic concerns of the  society. The final  stage  is  formulation  of  disaster  risk  reduction  strategies    and  action  plans  that  may  include  setting priorities, allocating  resources(human  and  material )and  initiating disaster  risk  reduction  programmes.

One is drawn to ask the crucial question, Why carry out  a disaster  risk  assessment? The  answer  to  this probably  lies  in  the  new  paradigm  shift  whereby  development  practitioners  are  more  concerned  with  mitigation, preparedness  and  prevention of  disasters   rather  than   providing relief aid  post -disaster. The merits  of  disaster risk assessment are numerous, notable   among them  are that it  helps organizations   and communities  to establish relevant  early  warning   systems, it is  multi-sectoral  in  approach which  therefore means  it involves  various  stakeholders to get  involved in  disaster management, it enables   communities  to  strengthen  capacities, it helps minimize  social  and economic  impacts  in  case of  a disaster, it also  discourages  dependency  as it is bottom-up in  approach. However  some  demerits do  exist notable  among them  is  that it  is  a long  term  project, it is  not  legally binding stakeholders  can  therefore dump  the project  while  still  underway, it may  face   the  problem of  lack  of  political  will and  as  such political  decisions  may take  precedence over disaster programmes,may lack resources –human  and  material since  it  is  diverse in  nature  and  requires  wide consultations.

The following  is  an  example  of  the  achievements  made  from risk assessment: VietNam has a long tradition of disaster mitigation. When the United Nations General Assembly designated the 1990s as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, Viet Nam responded by organizing a National Committee and strengthening the role its Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control (CCFSC) plays in disaster mitigation. The CCFSC has developed programmes, plans and measures for disaster reduction in coordination with other relevant organizations, directed the implementation of disaster mitigation activities and coordinated actions with relevant international organizations. In the late 1990s, Viet Nam experienced a number of extreme events, including Typhoon Linda (1997) in the southern coastal area. Although the human and economic losses were tragic, agencies at all levels strengthened their search and rescue capacities, resulting in tens of thousands of evacuations. More than 5 000 people were saved by these efforts. Once the typhoon abated, the government provided assistance to the local fishing communities. As a result of this and other disasters, the government took policy decisions for each part of the country, including improving flood resistance and protecting populated areas, by strengthening the system of dykes and flood diversion structures in northern Viet Nam, policies to prevent and mitigate flood damage in central Viet Nam, and the Mekong River Delta policy which is designed to prepare measures for living with floods and minimizing their damage. In recognition of these achievements, the United Nations awarded Viet Nam the Certificate of Distinction for Disaster Reduction on 11 October 2000, the International Day for Disaster Reduction.(UNEP 2001).

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